http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/06/tamiflu-resiste.html
Tamiflu Resistance in Swine Flu No Cause for Concern—Yet
Professor Pranab Kumar Bhattacharya
"For the developing and under developed countries with their very poor health infrastruc ture the risk of pandemic and toll of pandemic by H1N1 is expected to become probably highest. Donation of sufficient oseltamivi r and vaccine forH1N1 if in September- 09, should be available when the companies would make any vaccine, given up its existing contracts with several rich countries" .
Authors
Professor Pranab Kumar Bhattachar ya MD(cal) FIc Path(Ind) âȊ C;ȁ C;Professor of Pathology, Incharge of Histopatho logy, Cytogeneti cs, Blood Bank &VCCTC at Institute of Post Graduate Medical Ediucation &Resea rch 244a AJV bose Road, Kol-20, W.B, India and Mr. Rupak Bhattachar ya Bsc(cal) Msc(JU), Miss Upasana Bhattachar ya, Mr Debasis Mukherjee and Dr. Hriday Das MD(cal), DTM&H (cal) IPGME&R , 244a AJC Bose Road
The head of the World Health Organizati on Dr. Margaret Chan had declared the first influenza pandemic(H 1N1) in 41 years[1], after intense consultati ons and followed by a meeting on 11 June, with top health officials from countries those are most affected and experienci ng rapid transmissi on of the (H1N1) virus, even today at the community level like[ from previous travel-rel ated cases to more establishe d community types of spread. âȊ C;ȁ D;the United States, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Spain, Australia, Japan and Chile] , and with emergency committee of internatio nal experts monitoring the global outbreak. The planet is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic. âȊ C;œ ;We are at the earliest days of the pandemic;â Ȋ C;? She told it Level six[1].âȊ C;ȁ D; Level six means top level on WHO six-point scale, but of course not in any way, that we are facing the end of the world by the H1N1 virus, neither the virus is changing in the behavior or its genome. It indicates sustained community- level outbreaks in two or more countries [evidence of community spread are now in Australia, the United Kingdom and Chile] in one other WHO regions beyond initial community spread in one WHO region. The term pandemic reflects only the geographic spread of a new disease, not its severity. Pandemics typically infect about a third of the world in a year or two, and sometimes strike in successive waves .It is important to make this message clear because [otherwise ] when WHO announce level six it causes unnecessar y panics. However Further spread is considered inevitable .
As of 17th June, a total of 40,000 laboratory confirmed cases, including 167 deaths, have been reported by 74 countries to the global health agency. In Asia, first case was reported in Singapore. In India, already 63 cases had been so far confirmed{ in Kolkata-# cases] by laboratory and those affected were air travelers from foreign countries. They were kept in isolation. No death has been reported till date by H1N1 in India. Bangladesh , Laos and Papua New Guinea all reported their first cases, while infections continued to rise sharply in Thailand. Australia had reported 1307 cases and no deaths, Canada 2446 and 4 deaths, Mexico 6241 cases and 108 deaths[1], the United States 21,449 cases and 87 deaths. Wisconsin, Illinois and Texas have had the most reported illnesses and the Illinois count rose more than 500 cases. Other nations that have reported large numbers of confirmed cases include Chile, with 1694 cases and two deaths; Japan, with 518 cases; [A high secondary transmissi on rate of the H1N1 virus in Japan. among minors and suggest that "the population of minors could play a key role as a 'reservoir ' for sustained chains of secondary transmissi on of the virus] the United Kingdom, with 822; Spain, with 357; Argentina, with 256; Panama, with 221; and China, with 174 cases[1]. News from Brazil indicates that a new strain of the virus may have emerged there. Institute Adolfo Lutz, in São Paulo, says it has isolated a new strain, âȊ C;œ ;now known as A / Paulo/1454 /H1N1 of swine flue . Authoritie s in New Zealand said widespread transmissi on of the virus meant it likely had more than 1,000 cases.
The Question before author is how severe is going to be this pandemic? Moderate or Severe? If it is moderately severe, for the developing and under developed countries with poor health infrastruc ture there, and whose population s often have high levels of underlying diseases like under nutrition, starvation , malnutriti on, TB, HIV, [like in India where more then 25 cores people are living in bellow poverty line] risk of pandemic and toll of that pandemic is expected to become probably highest. There is lack of informatio n" on the pathogenes is and clinical feature of those with severe complicati ons/ illness and treatment regime particular ly who are showing unusually severe respirator y illness. Even in developed countries, the virus can cause severe and sometimes fatal illness in pregnant women, babies and people with underlying problems like asthma, heart disease, diabetes, obesity and autoimmune diseases. Most of the fatal infections reported so far had been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years[1] noticeably different from epidemics of seasonal influenza. People in those risk groups should seek treatment if they have a fever of at least 100.4, and a cough or a sore throat. The severity of the new virus does not even approach that of the 1918 one, which killed 40 million to 50 million people worldwide. But even the milder flu pandemics took serious death tolls. The one in 1957 killed two million people, and the 1968 pandemic killed about one million. Seasonal flu, by comparison , kills 250,000 to 500,000 people a year[2] The good news so far is that the virulence markers for the 1918 and H5N1 influenza viruses do not appear in the H1N1 strain
No vaccine yet? Vaccine if at all is the final target for pharma industries as preventive one, then it must be thinking for a very cheap or donation purpose for the low income countries like India Bangladesh , African Courtiers and must not for a billion dollars profit. It really remains unclear when the companies would make any donated vaccine available, given its existing contracts with several rich countries and. Dr Margaret Chan said that a donation of five million courses of the antiviral Neuraminid ase inhibitor oseltamivi r (Tamiflu) by the Roche group has been dispersed to 121 countries. She expected to receive a second donation of 5.6 million doses, part of which would be in paediatric formulatio n, which would be distribute d worldwide so that countries would have something on hand to deal with the pandemic[1 ] Neuraminid ase cleaves sialic acid residues on the cellular receptor that bind the newly formed virions to the cell and to one another, enabling infection to spread to new host cells and ongoing infection to be establishe d. The neuraminid ase inhibitors mimic neuraminid ase's natural substrate and bind to the active site, preventing the enzyme from cleaving host-cell receptors, thereby preventing infection of new host cells and halting the spread of infection. The two licensed neuraminid ase inhibitors , zanamivir (Relenza) and oseltamivi r (Tamiflu), have though toxicity but are effective against all neuraminid ase subtypes and, therefore, against all strains of influenza virus. But resistance with antiviral oseltamivi r (Tamiflu) already noted and spreading. H1N1 viruses containing the His274Tyr resistance mutation became widespread beginning with the 2007âȊ C;ȁ C;2008 influenza season in the Northern Hemisphere , with a prevalence of about 10% in the United States and about 25% in Europe (except for an astonishin g prevalence of about 70% in Norway). These resistant viruses then predominat ed during the Southern Hemisphere 's 2008 influenza season. In the United States today, H1N1 is the dominant circulatin g strain and is virtually 100% oseltamivi r-resistant H1N1 viruses can cause serious complicati ons, and recent data from Norway's 2007âȊ C;ȁ C;2008 influenza season suggest that patients infected with the resistant virus may be more likely to develop pneumonia or sinusitis than those infected with wild-type virus, although this finding did not reach statistica l significan ce. Could a resistant strain of H3N2 influenza âȊ C;ȁ D; the virus more commonly associated with death âȊ C;ȁ D; persist and be transmitte d like the current H1N1 strain? In principle, it could, although it would most likely result from different resistance mutations on a different genetic background , given the structural difference s between N1 and N2 neuraminid ases. These difference s mean, for example, that the His274Tyr mutation disrupts the oseltamivi r-binding site on N1 but not on N2 and that the Arg292Lys mutation confers more resistance on N2 than N1.We cannot yet anticipate the precise combinatio n of mutations that might enable fitness and persistenc e of a neuraminid ase-inhibit orâȊ C;ȁ C;resistant H3N2 strain[3]. However No resistance cases Reported in India Yet.
There must be restrictio ns on travel, or border controls, at stopping spread, and dr. chan called for countries to abstain from trade bans.
References
1)World Health Organizati on declares A (H1N1) influenza pandemic by John Zarocostas BMJ 2009;338:b 2425
2 By DONALD G. McNEIL Jrand DENISE GRADY To Flu Experts, âȊ C;˜ ;PandemicâȊ C;Ȓ 2; Confirms the Obvious New York Times Asia Pacific Published: June 11, 2009
3. Anne Moscona Global Transmissi on of Oseltamivi r-Resistant Influenza New.Eng.J. Med 360:953-95 6March 5, 2009 Number 10
"For the developing and under developed countries with their very poor health infrastruc
Authors
Professor Pranab Kumar Bhattachar
The head of the World Health Organizati
As of 17th June, a total of 40,000 laboratory confirmed cases, including 167 deaths, have been reported by 74 countries to the global health agency. In Asia, first case was reported in Singapore. In India, already 63 cases had been so far confirmed{
The Question before author is how severe is going to be this pandemic? Moderate or Severe? If it is moderately severe, for the developing and under developed countries with poor health infrastruc
No vaccine yet? Vaccine if at all is the final target for pharma industries as preventive one, then it must be thinking for a very cheap or donation purpose for the low income countries like India Bangladesh
There must be restrictio
References
1)World Health Organizati
2 By DONALD G. McNEIL Jrand DENISE GRADY To Flu Experts, âȊ
3. Anne Moscona Global Transmissi
Daniel Clery's article is commendabl
As is documented in the complaint, safety assumption
Linking to CERN's public safety review, Mr. Clery wrote, “The main argument…h
With its safety rationales in serious doubt this dangerous project, which threatens the very future of our world, should be halted at once.
Where are the 12 previous comments listed at the top of this article? Has Science in mounting an improved Comment layout permanentl
The internatio
The preceding two-page comment from readers in India suggests that the formation of a "micro blackhole" by the collider "would be rather a thrilling" occurrence
Every safety assumption for the LHC, such as those that Clery relays, have been put in serious doubt by recent studies, as is well-docum
On the other hand, if real, Hawking radiation from micro black holes could pose a serious danger of global warming and widespread destructio
Just as BP never imagined the as-of-yet-
The 70-page complaint by ConCERNed Internatio
The previous two-page comment from readers in India exemplifie
Ironically
On the other hand, if real, Hawking radiation from semi-stabl
Authors_:
Mr. Rupak Bhattachar
The Science
Any powerful particle accelerato
The Higgs particles could be as light as 78 GeV without however being detected at LEP, while detection at the LHC is extremely challengin
Some scientists
1] Rupak Bhattachar
2] Casadio, Roberto ; Fabi, Sergio ; Harms, Benjamin âȊ
2a] âȊ
3] Koch, B ; Bleicher, M ; Hossenfeld
4] Professor Pranab Kumar Bhattachar
5] News of the Week from the Science Policy Blog âȊ
The opposition to the LHC has been spurred by scientists and environmen
In answer to a previous comment, a microscopi
According to CERN-affil
IATWalrus, what has LHCphobia got to do with the bible? I realise that "interpret
All of you people who waste your life sucking god's d*ck need to realize something.
There is no "God" as such as what the "Bible" 'says'.
The Bible is simply just a load shit, written by who f*cking knows.
You go ahead and say that any sort of science related thing is bad and is the work of the devil, because it is based on Real Hard Evidence and has disproved the crap in the bible.
Anyone that is not stupid (thats people who know the bible is utter crap) knows that science is the best thing that has happened on the earth.
If you really think you didnt evolve from monkeys, then you should check and make sure your a human.
I am f*cking sick of all of you people ruining anything and everything good that has happened or is planned.
The LHC WILL NOT destroy the earth.
BUt maybe thats not why you are trying to prevent it.
The biggest problem you have, is you are SCARED.
Scared that it will finally PROVE the Big Bang theory, once and for all reinforce the fact that the bible is f*cked!
Stop worrying about everything and have fun. Live life properly, not by some f*cked up book!
A blackhole the size of 2 protons would not destroy Earth because it is too small. If you are still concerned about this, then why don't you talk to the most highly trained, educated, and *relevant* group of scientists on the planet: the nuclear phycisists at CERN. They know more than you about the blackhole situation, they know more than the conCERNed group, and they know more than the people who have commented on this site (including myself).
Congratula
Even if CERN advocates reply with attempted rebuttals, they will already not have been as quick off the mark as the above writers. And if past efforts are any indication - CERN have still not replied to Dr Plaga's latest well-resea
To think that, after all, what should have been the flagship of reason, rationalit
Push the button, Max.
After 2 years involved in suits against CERN, it seems clear to me that if this happens, it will be a collective error. The purpose of those suits was mainly to provide informatio
THis has not happened as expected, not because the issue was not serious and the dangers self-evide
Most reporters covering the LHC have behaved like handmaiden
The idea that "the black holes would quickly decay" is based on a theory of Hawking radiation, which lacks evidence and is disputed by respected physicists such as Helfer (2008) and Belinski (2006). Others calculate that an LHC-produc
Mr. Clery provided a link to an LHC safety review and wrote, "the main argument..
With the its safety rationales in serious doubt, this dangerous project, which threatens the very future of the world, should be halted at once.
Robert Houston
at the end of your article you correctly identify the principle flaw with CERN's safety reports: none of the scientists involved are independen
It's not just a case of commission
Under such conditions a report that was to give credence to the fears and dangers would similarly question the validity of the standard model and undermine the very foundation
Furthermor
The collisions will occur in an environmen
Gravitatio
Gravitatio
The conditions under which the collisions at CERN will take place have a relative value of (0) compared to the relative value of the collisions that may occur in space (1); thus when compared to each other the relative difference between the LHCâȊ
It is a bit like comparing the collision of two super tankers on the high seas with the collision of two similar sized meteorites in our atmosphere or one with our planet. The former may cause a localised environmen
Given such it is clear that we cannot rely on reports which are produced by people who have a vested interest in the outcome and conclusion
Authors-:M
Any powerful particle accelerato
The Higgs particles could be as light as 78 GeV without however being detected at LEP, while detection at the LHC is extremely challengin